Independent analysis in this coverage area.
Why the largest coffee crop on record left the exchange with half a day of cover.
A handful of countries and two harvest calendars set the clock for the world’s most important staple.
Coffee is a dollar-priced asset grown in emerging economies, making it a clean lens on monetary-policy spillovers: currency moves and divergent central-bank cycles reshape supply and trade flows independently of the headline…
Coffee is a microcosm of who captures value in a global commodity: the farmer keeps roughly 7% of the bag while branding, roasting, and retail margin accrue downstream — and overwhelmingly in…
Coffee is the cleanest climate-commodity signal: a shrinking arabica belt raises the floor under every price spike, widening the arabica–robusta premium and feeding a long inflation tail.
Two countries grow just over half the world’s coffee — the single largest structural risk in the chain, and how buyers are hedging it.
Is the 2024–2025 price spike a weather shock or a structural repricing? Osiria Research · Coffee & Commodities Note · June 2026 Coffee spent 2024 and 2025 trading at levels not seen…
A drought in Minas Gerais. A frost scare in São Paulo. A 50% US tariff on Brazilian imports. Three shocks, one outcome — the most volatile Arabica market in a generation.
Price goes up. People keep drinking. That's not loyalty — that's inelasticity.
Coffee futures are up nearly 3x from their 2021 lows. Most people noticed it in the price of their morning cup. We noticed it in the data.