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A handful of countries and two harvest calendars set the clock for the world’s most important staple.
Coffee is a dollar-priced asset grown in emerging economies, making it a clean lens on monetary-policy spillovers: currency moves and divergent central-bank cycles reshape supply and trade flows independently of the headline…
Coffee is a microcosm of who captures value in a global commodity: the farmer keeps roughly 7% of the bag while branding, roasting, and retail margin accrue downstream — and overwhelmingly in…
Coffee is the cleanest climate-commodity signal: a shrinking arabica belt raises the floor under every price spike, widening the arabica–robusta premium and feeding a long inflation tail.
Two countries grow just over half the world’s coffee — the single largest structural risk in the chain, and how buyers are hedging it.
Is the 2024–2025 price spike a weather shock or a structural repricing? Osiria Research · Coffee & Commodities Note · June 2026 Coffee spent 2024 and 2025 trading at levels not seen…
A drought in Minas Gerais. A frost scare in São Paulo. A 50% US tariff on Brazilian imports. Three shocks, one outcome — the most volatile Arabica market in a generation.
Price goes up. People keep drinking. That's not loyalty — that's inelasticity.
Coffee futures are up nearly 3x from their 2021 lows. Most people noticed it in the price of their morning cup. We noticed it in the data.
While the world watches Iran, Russia and China are quietly extracting enormous strategic and financial value. This is what winning without fighting looks like.
Three sanctioned powers. One interlocking dependency structure. Understanding what each side needs from the others is essential to reading the new energy and security order.