Intelligence
for
a fractured
global order.
Independent research on international trade, energy markets, geopolitical risk, and the macro forces reshaping the global economy. Rigorous. Unaffiliated. Forward-looking.
Record Crop, Empty Warehouses
Why the largest coffee crop on record left the exchange with half a day of cover.
Six Suppliers, Two Harvests, One Fragile Clock
A handful of countries and two harvest calendars set the clock for the world’s most important staple.
Dollars, Reais, and Beans
Coffee is a dollar-priced asset grown in emerging economies, making it a clean lens on monetary-policy spillovers: currency moves and divergent central-bank cycles reshape supply and trade flows independently of the headline…
Who Captures the Cup
Coffee is a microcosm of who captures value in a global commodity: the farmer keeps roughly 7% of the bag while branding, roasting, and retail margin accrue downstream — and overwhelmingly in…
Coffee as a Climate Macro Risk
Coffee is the cleanest climate-commodity signal: a shrinking arabica belt raises the floor under every price spike, widening the arabica–robusta premium and feeding a long inflation tail.
Two Countries, Half the Beans
Two countries grow just over half the world’s coffee — the single largest structural risk in the chain, and how buyers are hedging it.
Three shocks, one market
Front-month Arabica, weekly close. Drag across the line to read any week — toggle the supply shocks to see how the volatility regime broke.
Front-month KC=F, weekly close (¢/lb). Volatility = 30-week rolling realized vol, annualized (√52). Source data: June 2024–August 2026.
Where America buys its coffee
Every mapped coffee outlet in the contiguous US — chains and independents alike, plotted at store level. Independents account for 63% of the count, and they fill in much of the country the national brands leave thin.
How are tariff regimes reshaping global supply chains and domestic price levels?
What structural forces are driving migration in global trade flows and sourcing networks?
What are the economic implications of warfare?
The coffee economy.
“The world doesn’t lack data.
It lacks interpretation.”
Osiria Research was founded on a simple premise: the most consequential economic forces shaping the world are often the least understood by the people most affected by them. We produce independent research on international trade, energy markets, and macro policy — written with the precision of institutional analysis and the clarity of journalism.
Trade flows, policy regimes, tariffs, supply chain restructuring, and the evolving architecture of global commerce.
Arabica and robusta fundamentals, origin weather risk, certified stocks, freight and currency pass-through, and the volatility that follows.
Exportable surplus, Black Sea flows, milling and feed demand, substitution dynamics, and the policy interventions that move price.
Sanctions regimes, conflict economics, great power competition, and the financial implications of a fracturing world order.
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